ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 travel restriction orders have significantly reduced travel and generally lowered the risk of road traffic collisions, but many accounts suggest an increase in risky driving behaviors and consequent fatal crashes during the shelter-in-place period. Risky driving behaviors including failure to wear a seatbelt, speeding, and drunk driving were observed to be the leading contributing factors of the fatalities. Whereas the fatal crashes that characterized the shelter-in-place period has become a topical issue, the high number of crashes that occurred as a result of the panic shopping and increased travel activities in the weeks before the shelter-in-place order have not received much attention. In this study, we investigated the differences and similarities in the effects of the factors that were associated with crash injury severity before, during, and after the shelter-in-place order. The study used crash data from the state of Alabama for the 2020 calendar year. Preliminary data analysis revealed interesting variations in crash trends across the three periods. It was found that the highest weekly crash frequency occurred in the immediate week before the shelter-in-place order, and a higher proportion of crashes that occurred between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m. and those that occurred in residential areas happened during the shelter-in-place period while shopping area crashes, manufacturing/industrial area crashes, rear-end collisions, and crashes involving female drivers occurred mostly before the shelter-in-place period. Three injury severity models were developed using random parameters logit with heterogeneity in means and variances approach. The results showed that major injury crashes occurred mainly in rural areas and occurred due to speeding, fatigue driving, and failure to use a seatbelt. The effects of these factors on crash outcome did not vary across the year, indicating that the shelter-in-place order did not impact the driving behaviors of the driver population that got into major injury crashes. The results further revealed that the effects of some crash factors, such as road type and manner of collision, varied across the periods. The findings of the study provide a deeper, data-driven understanding of how driving behaviors and associated crash outcomes may be affected by extreme events such as the COVID-19 shelter-in-place.
ABSTRACT
With the rising number of cases and deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic, nations and local governments, including many across the U.S., imposed travel restrictions on their citizens. This travel restriction order led to a significant reduction in traffic volumes and a generally lower exposure to crashes. However, recent preliminary statistics in the US suggest an increase in fatal crashes over the period of lockdown in comparison to the same period in previous years. This study sought to investigate how the pandemic affected road crashes and crash outcomes in Alabama. Daily vehicle miles traveled and crashes were obtained and explored. To understand the factors associated with crash outcomes, four crash-severity models were developed: (1) Single-vehicle (SV) crashes prior to lockdown order (Normal times SV); (2) multi-vehicle (MV) crashes prior to lockdown order (Normal times MV); (3) Single-vehicle crashes after lockdown order (COVID times SV); and (4) Multi-vehicle crashes after lockdown order (COVID times MV). The models were developed using the first 28 weeks of crashes recorded in 2020. The findings of the study reveal that although traffic volumes and vehicle miles traveled had significantly dropped during the lockdown, there was an increase in the total number of crashes and major injury crashes compared to the period prior to the lockdown order, with speeding, DUI, and weekends accounting for a significant proportion of these crashes. These observations provide useful lessons for road safety improvements during extreme events that may require statewide lockdown, as has been done with the COVID-19 pandemic. Traffic management around shopping areas and other areas that may experience increased traffic volumes provide opportunities for road safety stakeholders to reduce the occurrence of crashes in the weeks leading to an announcement of any future statewide or local lockdowns. Additionally, increased law enforcement efforts can help to reduce risky driving activities as traffic volumes decrease.